Wang Pei’an: Q&A for two-child policy

(chinadaily.com.cn)

Updated: 2014-06-05

Q: Will qualified couples flock to give birth once the policy is carried out, leading to a leap in short-term birth rate?

A: The number of qualified couples for the policy nationwide is not large. Besides, provinces will decide on a date to implement the policy, based on their individual circumstances. So, time will vary in different provinces, due to different regional population development and preparations. Therefore, there won’t be a leap in birth rate in the short term.

But, areas that have a large number of qualified couples should be careful to avoid the possible problems. These areas can advocate reasonable birth intervals, give priority to qualified older couples, and take care of the review and approval of giving birth to a second child. China will prepare the annual population plan based on the population development plan for 2011-2015, birth population changes in recent years, and two-child policy implementation to strengthen guidance and control, ensuring the newly-born population occurs within a reasonable range and avoids fluctuation.

Q: Will the two-child policy implementation bring huge pressure on China’s food security and basic public services, such as health, education and employment?

A: China's food security and basic public service resource allocation plans are based on the premise that total population reaches 1.43 billion in 2020 and peaks around 1.5 billion in 2033. It’s estimated that the policy adjustment won’t bring a significant increase in the annual newborn population nationwide. It is expected that after the adjustment, the total population in 2020 will be significantly lower than 1.43 billion, and the peak number will also less than 1.5 billion. In addition, the rise in population in the years after policy implementation will, more or less, amount to the newborn population in 2000. It’s safe to say that the two-child policy won’t bring huge pressure on food security and basic public services, such as health, education and employment.

Adjusting and improving the childbearing policy doesn’t mean relaxing family planning.

Q: Why can’t the two-child policy be carried out nationwide at this point?

A: The National Health and Family Planning Commission has carried out a large amount of research, which argues that if we implement the two-child policy nationwide now, there will be big fluctuations in the newborn population in the short term, putting pressure on various basic public services. In the long run, it will create cyclical fluctuations in the newborn population, causing a continuously growing population and delaying the arrival of a peak population, which hinders the realization of the long-range population development plan and is detrimental to China's economic and social development. Independent research by the State Statistics Bureau, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the China Development Research Foundation, and the School of Sociology and Population Studies at Renmin University of China also prove this argument.